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After the government shutdown, some people predicted that the Democrats would take the House back in 2014; although with gerrymandering and the poor rollout of Obamacare, this didn't happen. The GOP can took the Senate-most of the races that are supposed to be competitive were for seats held by Democrats in states Mitt Romney won in 2012. 2016 is a presidential election year, plus there are a lot of Republicans up for reelection then in Blue states, conditions for Democrats to possibly win enough seats to override Filibusters.. It is unlikely for Republicans to pick up the six seats needed to get a working majority;though some people say the chance is about equivalent to a coin flip. Most forecasts predict Republicans will pick up about 2 to 4 seats. The Democrats have a chance of taking a majority of governor's states, as many unpopular Republican governor's in purple states and blue states are up for re-election.
Races to WatchEdit
Democratic Governor Mike Beebe is retiring. So far the only Democrat is former congressman Mike Ross. On the GOP side, there's Curtis Coleman, Debra Hobbs, and Asa Hutchinson. There's also a Green Party candidate, Josh Drake.
Incumbent Democrat Dan Malloy has faced poor approval ratings throughout his term thanks to a poor economy and unpopular tax increases.  He is being challenged by Republican Tom Foley, who he barely beat in 2010. Polling has Foley three points ahead. 
Florida governor Rick Scott was elected in the 2010 tea party sweep. Democratic candidates are former Republican governor Charlie Crist, Farid Khavari, and former state senate minority leader Nan Rich. Khavari has an interesting plan for a state-run bank, but Rich is opposed to fracking and supports labeling of GMO's. Crist leads the primary polls. Polls have also found that he is more likely to beat Rick Scott than Rich, although his lead is shrinking.
Democratic governor Pat Quinn has no primary opponents and a thirty-four percent approval rating. The four Republicans running for this race are Bruce Rauner, Kirk Dillard, Dan Rutherford, and Bill Brady. The only bright side for liberals here is that Illinois is a very liberal state: Quinn is not a great governor but he's the least bad candidate, so we want him to win.
This race is complicated. Current Tea Party governor Paul LePage is extremely unpopular. The Democratic challenger is Congressman Michael Michaud. LePage was elected in 2010 with only thirty-eight percent of the vote. He won because a Democrat and an independent candidate, Eliot Cutler, split the Democratic vote. Cutler is running again and a three-way race like this could potentially reelect LePage, despite his thirty-nine percent approval rating.
Tea Party Governor Rick Snyder is extremely unpopular. Although he's not yet announced his candidicay, he has a campaign website with a big, blue "Contribute Today" button. The Democrats have rallied behind former state senator Mark Schauer.
Governor Tom Corbett is the least popular governor in the country and his popularity just keeps getting worse.. The Democratic primary field is large, but the most likely nominee is Representative Allyson Schwartz. The other Democratic candidates are Rob McCord, Kathleen McGinty, John Hanger, Ed Pawlowski, JoEllen Litz, Max Myers, and Tom Wolf.
Governor Lincoln Chafee is retiring. The two main Democratic candidates are Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras. Taveras is considered to be the more progressive option. The GOP candidates are Allan Fung and Ken Block.
Rick Perry is finally retiring, but there's a worse man in store for Texas: Attorney General Greg Abbott. Abbott's opponent is Wendy Davis, a state senator who captured national attention with an eleven-hour filibuster of abortion restrictions. The election will be an uphill battle for Davis, but compared to the last Democrats who ran for Texas governor, she has better chances.
Tea Party Governor Scott Walker is unquestionably one of the worst in the United States-besides failing to create the jobs he promised, a recall was attempted, Walker won and then used the fact that people signed the recall petition to deny them minor, non-political government offices. The two democratic candidates are Kathleen Vinehout and Mary Burke. Despite Walker's outrageousness, the race is not likely to be as contested as you might think.
Democrat Mark Begich is running for reelection. His opponent will probably be either former attorney general Dan Sullivan; Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell, a moderate; or conservative Joe Miller. Miller was the GOP nominee in 2010, but lost to incumbent Lisa Murkowski's write-in campaign. Although she's not announced her candidacy yet, apparently the largest number of Alaska Republicans want Sarah Palin to be the nominee. Begich has a small lead over his opponents.
Incumbent Saxby Chambliss is retiring. Democrat Michelle Nunn is the likely Democratic nominee. Meanwhile, the GOP field is crowded: Congressman Paul Broun, Art Gardner, Phil Gingrey, Derrick Grayson, Karen Handel, Jack Kingston, David Purdue, and Eugene Yu. The nominee will probably be Gingrey, Broun, Handel, or Kingston. All four are very conservative, judging by their websites. This is exactly what the Democrats want. Because the Georgia GOP is very conservative, the Democrats are hoping that, in order to win the primary, each candidate racks up a good share of Todd Akin moments. This is by far the Democrat's best oppritunity for a pick-up.
Democratic incumbent Tom Harkin is retiring. Democratic congressman Bruce Braley has the support of Harkin. The GOP field is currently lead by Sam Clovis and Joni Ernst. Other candidates are Mark Jacobs, Paul Lunde, Scott Schaben, and Matt Whitaker. However, if evangelical activist Bob Vander Plaats ran, he would win.
Everybody who hates Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell should be pleased right now, because he might not have a job come 2015. His main Democratic challenger is Alison Lundergan Grimes. However, he also has a Tea Party challenger, Matt Bevin. Although McConnell will probably win the primary, it will force him to spend some cash he could've spent on the general election.
Democratic Incumbent Max Baucus is about to be appointed Ambassador to China. This will allow for Lt. Governor John Walsh, the likely nominee, to be appointed to the seat. As an incumbent, he'll be in a better position to beat the likely Republican, Congressman Steve Daines.
Democrat Kay Hagan beat Elizabeth Dole in 2008. Her opponent will be either Greg Brannon (proudly endorsed by Rand Paul), Mark Harris (committed to "traditional values", Heather Grant, Bill Flynn, and State House Speaker Thom Tillis. This is also a very conservative primary field that might get several Todd Akin moments as well.
- ↑ http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/can-republicans-win-the-senate-in-2014/?_r=0
- ↑ http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-2014-a-coin-flip/
- ↑ http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-governor/
- ↑ http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2013/08/25/214133469/a-guide-to-the-nations-most-vulnerable-governors
- ↑ http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=1911
- ↑ http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1979
- ↑ http://polls.saintleo.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Florida-Voters-Poll-Results-1.pdf
- ↑ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_FL_122.pdf
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 http://cookpolitical.com/governor/charts/race-rating
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/governor
- ↑ http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2013/08/30/2557811/stupid-election-rule-wind-reelecting-tea-party-governor-voters-hate/
- ↑ http://www.rickformichigan.com/
- ↑ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/corbetts-numbers-just-keep-getting-worse.html
- ↑ http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/509/it-says-so-right-here?act=3#play
- ↑ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/07/palin-top-pick-of-alaska-republicans.html NOTE: This poll is from July 2013, might be getting old
- ↑ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/02/begich-continues-to-hold-small-leads-for-reelection.html
- ↑ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/08/nunn-in-close-race-for-chambliss-open-senate-seat.html NOTE: August 2013
- ↑ http://images.politico.com/global/2013/11/26/iowapoll.html