Occam's razor tells us a simple explanation with few assumptions is more likely to be true. Something could have happened in several different ways. Then a way with few guesses is more likely to be correct than a way with many guesses. Of course if a complex explanation works better than a simple explanation we take the complex explanation seriously.
One or more trees fell down during a storm, which is more likely?
- The storm blew the trees over.
- A low flying Alien spacecraft knocked them down and afterwards the Space aliens used their superior technology to eliminate all other traces of their visit.
Both could theoretically happen, still we have no evidence:
- That aliens visit the earth
- That they knock trees down
- That they remove evidence of their visits.
Which explanation do we choose?
- The space alien explanation involves three improbable assumptions.
- We know that heavy wind sometimes blows trees over.
The space alien explanation needs several unlikely assumptions all to be true so it's most likely the wrong answer. Occam's razor suggests that the wind blew the trees down. That's the simplest answer and therefore most likely the right one.